- Pafos have taken three wins, one draw and one loss from their last five home matches in all competitions heading into Thursday's second-leg.
- Hajduk have drawn three and lost two of their last five away games in all competitions.
- Both Pafos and Hajduk have identical recent records of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats across their last 10 games in all competitions.
Tight second-leg in prospect as Pafos look to make amends
Pafos FC go into the second-leg of their UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 clash with HNK Hajduk Split as the odds-on favorites to win the game, but the first-leg defeat they suffered means the bookmakers are still backing Pafos to progress, and this Pafos FC vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction points to a tight contest.
The odds for Pafos to progress are 1.72, with the visitors priced at 4.28 and the draw at 3.9, which seems to suggest that the hosts will need to hit a peak on Thursday in order to turn the tide.
The Cyprus outfit are unbeaten in four of their last five games across all competitions (W3, D1) and look strong at home after posting three wins, one draw and one defeat in their previous five outings there, so our selection leans toward a closely fought match.
Both teams can play 4-2-3-1 but they're very different beasts
Both Pafos and Hajduk Split tend to play in 4-2-3-1 formations, but their tactics are very different and this contrast in styles will lead to a clash in this second-leg at Alphamega Stadium.
Gonzalo Garcia has been in charge of Hajduk since 1st July 2025 and he has been pushing his side to play a more attacking, high-tempo brand of soccer with his 4-2-3-1, pressing the opposition and playing vertically. Ricardo Sa Pinto was appointed on 29th April 2026 by Pafos and has gone the other way, getting his team to sit deeper and look for transitions.
This clash of styles means that Hajduk should be the team on the front foot and Pafos will need to stop the visitors in the middle third and hope to pounce on the counters, so we are going to take the Over 2.5 option in the game odds market, with betting tips pointing in that direction.
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck can make an impact for Hajduk
A 2-0 away win over Apollon Limmassol in the Cyprus Cup was followed by a 2-0 defeat away to Hajduk in the previous match in this UEFA Europa League Qualification 2026 tie and that's exactly why this is going to be a close second-leg.
Pafos are strong in the goals at home, averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded per-match in all competitions, but Hajduk are less sharp on the road, averaging just 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded away from home.
Hajduk have been in decent form themselves, winning three, drawing one and losing one of their last five in all competitions, with a 2-0 home win over MSK Zilina, a 2-1 away defeat to the same side and a 2-0 home defeat of Pafos in this competition.
Both Teams To Score - Yes is a strong play at 1.75, but the hosts are still favourites to go through and the first-leg lead of Hajduk means this will be cagey and tense, so we're staying away from the Pafos win and going for the draw, which fits our assessment.
