- Hajduk Split have won three and lost two of their last five games, including two consecutive victories over Slaven (2-0) and Osijek (2-0).
- Rijeka have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five, including a 3-1 home win over NK Varazdin.
- Rijeka have won just two of their 10 away games in HNL 2025/2026, losing four.
Jadranski derby to test two tactical styles
The fierce Jadranski derby pits two teams that have contrasting styles and similar ambitions in the HNL 2025/2026 season, when third-placed Rijeka, with 32 points from 22 games, visit second-placed Hajduk Split, who have 43 points from 22 games, on Sunday. This HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Rijeka prediction highlights the intriguing clash between the hosts’ strategic possession game and the visitors’ compact resilience.
Gonzalo Garcia has made his mark on the hosts since arriving at the helm in July 2025, implementing a possession-first 4-3-3 system in which the team control the tempo and overpower opponents with wide overloads and intense pressing.
Meanwhile, Victor Sanchez has made Rijeka a solid, compact unit since his appointment in September 2025, with the coach deploying a variety of pragmatic and flexible setups. His teams have been well-drilled in the art of compact, disciplined mid-blocks and quick, wing-based counterattacks that have caused many a frustrated coach to chew their fingernails in the dugout.
Hosts are playing their best soccer
Hajduk are the favorites to win this game at 1.88, but the HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Rijeka prediction reflects Rijeka’s talent for throwing a wrench in the works and ruining the momentum of their more illustrious rivals, making the away side seem a lot more appealing at 4.1, while the draw is also a shade of a value at 3.2. However, we’re taking the hosts as the value choice in the moneyline markets and considering the best HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Rijeka betting tips.
Split have won seven of their 11 home games, drawing two and losing two. They’re playing some of their best football of the season right now and should take the win in this one. Particularly relevant for the HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Rijeka preview, Rijeka have only won one of their last two away games, while they haven’t won their last two trips to Hajduk Split, so the home advantage should be with Hajduk.
Rivals’ game could be a chess match
A clash of control versus containment could be in store on Sunday, with Hajduk looking to maintain the tempo of the game and force their visitors out of their well-drilled shape. Sanchez’s team should have enough structure and discipline to stay in the contest, but the fact that Hajduk have scored 19 goals in 11 home matches points to the superior threat that Garcia’s team brings to the pitch.
Rijeka beat Hajduk 5-0 in HNL 2025/2026 at home in a statement result two months ago, but the rivals’ recent head-to-head record is very even with two wins for Rijeka, one for Hajduk and a draw from the last four. Tiago Dantas has scored three of Rijeka’s last seven goals and looks a viable goal-scoring option at any price, while Marko Livaja has added two of Hajduk’s last six. Michele Sego remains the leading scorer for Hajduk this season with 10 goals in 20 HNL appearances and is the most likely man to score a goal on the day.
As our final HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Rijeka prediction, backing Hajduk Split to win looks the play here as the home record of the two sides tells a story, with Rijeka having conceded 13 goals in 10 away matches and an average of 1.3 away goals per game. However, Rijeka are a cautious side who will aim to keep things tight at the back so the under 2.5 goals bet at 1.65 also looks good.
