- Widzew Lodz have won three of their last five, including a 2-0 home win over Motor Lublin after losing 2-0 at home in the reverse fixture two months ago.
- Motor Lublin are on a poor run of one win, one draw, and three defeats in their last five, culminating in a 4-0 away win at Wisla Plock followed by a 4-0 defeat at Legia Warszawa.
- Motor Lublin have won two, drawn one, and lost three of their six away matches in all competitions, conceding 11 times.
Control versus counter at Stadion Widzewa
It has been an up and down couple of months between Widzew Lodz and Motor Lublin, with the hosts losing their first meeting 2-0 and then winning the reverse matchup by the same scoreline. The last three meetings between these two clubs have been a lot closer than the overall head-to-head record suggests, with Widzew winning one and Motor winning two of those games. This Widzew Lodz vs Motor Lublin prediction suggests another tight contest.
Aleksandar Vukovic's pragmatic Widzew set-up has been built on sitting deep and counter-attacking, which has resulted in them conceding an average of just 0.40 goals per match at home across all competitions. However, the hosts have also averaged just 1.60 goals scored per home match this season, so it is clear that their style is all about control.
Motor Lublin, on the other hand, are an attack-first team under Mariusz Misiura, and they have been pushing men forward and throwing numbers into the box at a much greater rate than Widzew. This should make for an interesting contrast of styles on Sunday, with Widzew looking to punish the space left in behind the attack while Motor Lublin will look to pin them back and win territory.
Hosts to edge it in a tight matchup
While Motor Lublin are the better priced of the two teams on the board at 4.4, we're going for Widzew at 1.74 as they look the likelier winner given their superior quality and greater desire for the ball. However, we feel this matchup is unlikely to be a blowout for the favourites and will be more of a scrap. Our home win pick is a narrow one.
Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.77 and Under 2.5 Goals at 1.95 are both reasonable prices given the head-to-head and overall records of these two sides, but we prefer the Under 2.5 Goals market in this instance as it matches the feel of this clash. For that reason, our betting tips lean toward a low-scoring game.
Sebastian Bergier has been a live wire for Widzew, laying on three assists in their last five games as they have scored seven times. Meanwhile, Bartosz Wolski has been the creative force for Motor Lublin, providing five assists in his team's last five matches while Karol Czubak has been the finisher, scoring three times in those same five games in which his team have scored just seven goals.
Across all competitions, Widzew's last 10 matches have seen them win four, draw three, and lose three, while Motor Lublin have won just three, drawn three and lost four in the same number of games. Widzew's form is more solid, but it has not been the best and the visitors have a chance.
While the stats and the recent form point towards a home victory, we believe the game will be tighter and a better choice in the match betting market is Widzew to win and under 2.5 total goals, which matches the narrow-favourite feel of the fixture and should provide a good hedge in case things go a little awry. This again points to the hosts edging it.
