- Almeria have won their last 2 LaLiga 2 home games.
- Malaga CF are unbeaten in their last 5 LaLiga 2 games, winning 2 and drawing 3.
- Almeria’s talisman Sergio Arribas has scored 4 in his last 5 appearances.
Side with the home side in Almeria
The Union Deportiva Almeria vs Malaga CF prediction is shaping up to be a key clash, as Union Deportiva Almeria are the team in third place in LaLiga 2, but only by virtue of holding 61 points from 35 games, just 1 more than Malaga CF in fourth. Both teams are in the promotion race and this weekend’s Andalusian derby could be a bit of a firecracker in more ways than one.
Rubi has got his team playing a very distinct, aggressive and well-disciplined style since taking over in July 2024. His 4-2-3-1 system is built on wide-runners, set-piece threat and an ability to play fast when in transition. Almeria players are all over the opposition all over the field at home, compressing the space for the visitors and pressing their buildup with urgency. Their average of 2.53 goals scored per home game is far higher than the 1.41 per game they concede in LaLiga 2, so they are potent but certainly not infallible at the back.
Sergio Arribas is Almeria’s leading goal scorer and talisman with 21 goals in 35 appearances in Spain’s second division this term. The veteran is in superb form, having scored four goals in his last five appearances, which has contributed to their record of 11 goals from their latest 5 fixtures - a run of 3 wins and 2 defeats.
Funes has made Malaga tough to break down
In this Union Deportiva Almeria vs Malaga CF preview, Juan Funes took over Malaga CF in November 2025 and has done a terrific job in building an organized, hard-working unit from the start. His 4-3-3 or diamond midfield is compact and gets men behind the ball to stop the opposition building up. They also work hard to press high up, which can disrupt the visitors’ pattern of play.
This Union Deportiva Almeria vs Malaga CF prediction also factors in Funes’s rigid tactical approach and consistency in the starting XIs he picks, which has paid dividends with Malaga now one of the best teams in Spain’s second tier. They are solid on their travels with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 3 away fixtures, beating Las Palmas 2-0 at home in between. Chupe is the top scorer in the team with 16 goals in 32 league games this term and he’ll be a constant threat to Almeria’s backline on Sunday.
End-to-end action to ensue
Malaga CF were 2-1 winners in this fixture when the two sides met 3 months ago in the reverse at La Rosaleda. However, our Union Deportiva Almeria vs Malaga CF prediction notes that Almeria have failed to win either of their last 2 home games against the Costa del Sol outfit, so we’re passing on them to do the double this weekend.
Instead, we’re going for a home win for Almeria because of their excellent home record this season in the second tier, winning 12 of their 17 games in total with only 3 defeats. A 3-1 home victory is the preferred correct score play here because Malaga have scored 21 goals in 17 away games, so they can score even when they are not in top form.
For those looking for Union Deportiva Almeria vs Malaga CF betting tips, the odds of 1.88 for a home Almeria victory seem a bit low, but there’s also plenty of value in Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 and Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.53.
