- Rijeka have won 1 of 1 home games in HNL 2026/2027, averaging 2.00 goals per game scored and 1.00 conceded.
- Istra are yet to win away from home in HNL 2026/2027 (1 draw, 0 defeats).
- Rijeka have failed to win their last 2 home games against Istra, so a cagey derby is expected.
Istra can make Rijeka work for it
HNK Rijeka preview: HNK Rijeka go into their Istrian derby with NK Istra 1961 Pula on Sunday in the HNL 2026/2027 table with 3 points from 2 games while the visitors are 5th with 4 points from 3.
Rijeka have a lot to prove here as they arrive off the back of a 1-1 draw with Ilves Tampere in UEFA Conference League qualification and a 2-0 away defeat to Varaždin in HNL 2026/2027, while Istra are coming into the game off the back of a 2-2 away draw at Hajduk and a 3-0 home win over Slaven Belupo in HNL 2026/2027.
Rijeka have had a few more days to prepare after their midweek European fixture so they may have the edge in terms of freshness, but Istra have proven themselves to be a tough, resilient side in the opening games of the season.
Rijeka's structure vs Istra's possession
Matjaz Kek returned to Rijeka on 7th June 2026 and has already made his mark on the club by bringing a structure-first, pragmatic approach.
His typical set-up is a compact side that can be manoeuvred into a number of formations - their base formation is a 4-3-3, but they are often deployed in a 4-2-3-1, that can press in coordinated waves and break quickly to punish opponents who lose the ball.
Tiago Dantas has been Rijeka's creative spark, registering 1 assist in 2 HNL 2026/2027 fixtures so far, but Daniel Adu-Adjei is the danger man, scoring 1 goal in his 2 HNL 2026/2027 appearances.
Javi Cabello was appointed as Istra's head coach for 2026 - 27 and has explicitly stated that he will try to play pro-active, possession-based soccer, built on pressing and controlled buildup.
Local reporting on the team indicates that the players and the public are behind Cabello's plan, despite the side being very young in age and experience, and the game model is based on trying to control the pace and tempo of the fixture with patient buildup and forward intent.
Emil Frederiksen has been Istra's danger man, scoring 3 goals in 3 HNL 2026/2027 games and 3 of their last 8 goals overall.
Rijeka are favored but Istra can nick it
Rijeka are the clear favorites at 1.36 with Istra at 7.5 and the draw at 4.9.
However, considering Rijeka have failed to win their last 2 home games against Istra and that Istra have come into their stride in the last two HNL 2026/2027 fixtures, it seems more reasonable to look at the underdog odds, particularly as the bookies seem to be underestimating the visitors.
Under 2.5 goals at 2.29 looks a smart alternative bet here as the match is expected to be cagey and tense - Rijeka have been rock-solid at home so far and Istra will be looking to make them work for it.
Recent meetings between the teams have split evenly over the last 3 games (1 win each, 1 draw) with the HNK 2025/2026 fixture between them finishing 0-0 at Istra's ground, and so a narrow, cagey matchup is anticipated, which is why HNK Rijeka vs NK Istra 1961 Pula prediction points toward a close contest.
HNK Rijeka vs NK Istra 1961 Pula prediction: recent form and the head-to-head record suggest a tight battle.
