- Excelsior have won two of their last five Eredivisie games, including a gritty 1-0 win over NAC Breda in their last home game
- FC Groningen have won one of their last five Eredivisie contests, losing twice and drawing twice
Excelsior have a home edge
FC Groningen are seventh in the Eredivisie 2025-2026 table with 20 points from 13 games, above opponents Excelsior Rotterdam, who are 13th with 16 points from 14 matches.
But the Rotterdam outfit are in the better form, having won their last two Eredivisie games, and are a dangerous team at home, where they have three wins and four defeats from seven matches.
Ruben den Uil’s team have scored only six goals at home in the Eredivisie, but the goal flow is getting better. In this Excelsior Rotterdam vs FC Groningen preview, the improvement in Excelsior's attacking output could play a critical role.
Noah Naujoks is Excelsior’s talisman up front, scoring four times in 11 Eredivisie appearances, but he has hit four of his team’s last six goals.
Groningen get the better of opponents when on a roll
The last meeting between these clubs was in the KNVB Cup 2023/2024 when Groningen beat Excelsior 2-0 away from home, but it could be much closer this time around according to our Excelsior Rotterdam vs FC Groningen prediction.
Excelsior’s pressing style is variable and can be explosive, but the underlying philosophy remains the same - press at all times and transition quickly when the ball is won.
Dick Lukkien’s Groningen play a similar system, but their press is more collective and they are a much better-drilled team, having worked together since July 2023.
Brynjolfur Andersen Willumsson, who plays up front for Groningen, has five goals in nine Eredivisie appearances this term, but Thom van Bergen has found his shooting boots, netting three of their seven goals in the last five.
Groningen are worthy favorites
FC Groningen are rightful favorites for this matchup at 2.18, with Excelsior available at 3.27 and the draw priced at 3.6.
Groningen have a superior away record, are better placed in the table and the bookies have it right in their pricing for this one. That’s why our Excelsior Rotterdam vs FC Groningen betting tips point towards a tightly contested game.
But I’m going to take Excelsior to get a result on Friday because they have momentum and a grittiness about them that is working right now.
With Groningen having lost 2-0 away at NEC Nijmegen and drawn 2-2 at home with FC Zwolle in their last two matches, it is very hard to get too excited about them right now.
A close matchup is expected because both coaches have instilled a high-intensity pressing philosophy in their respective teams since taking over in July 2024 (Excelsior) and July 2023 (Groningen).
The key for both clubs is to dictate the pace of the matchup and control the transition moments in which both teams do their best work.
This Excelsior Rotterdam vs FC Groningen prediction suggests over 2.5 goals at 1.71 looks good to us because neither team is going to sit back and the pressing will lead to chances at both ends.
