- Athletic have won three of their last four meetings with Alaves, drawing the other.
- Athletic have won both home games in LaLiga, conceding 2 goals across the two matches.
- Alaves have failed to win in their last two away games, taking one draw and one defeat.
Athletic have a spring in their step
Athletic Bilbao have begun the new campaign with a burst of form that is making them clear favorites to come out on top in this Basque derby against Deportivo Alaves. Ernesto Valverde’s side are second in LaLiga 2025-2026 after taking nine points from their first three games, which includes a 2-1 away win at Real Betis last weekend.
They have won three of their last five in all competitions, losing the other, while their home form is even more consistent with two wins and a defeat in their last three at San Mames. They are compact, patient, and explosive on the counter attack when they play their best brand of soccer under Valverde, who has brought his tactical discipline and continuity to the club since July 2022.
The Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves prediction points to Aitor Paredes as their leading scorer in LaLiga with one goal in three appearances, but the athletic defender is arguably their most important player as he anchors the defence and provides the odd goal. Oihan Sancet has also chipped in with some goals, scoring two of Athletic’s last three in all competitions, and looks like their chief playmaker.
Alaves are a young, aggressive side
Alaves will provide a different sort of test to Athletic on Saturday as Eduardo Coudet’s men are a high-tempo, fluid and man-oriented side who play a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 formation. According to our Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves preview, Coudet’s pressing game has added some energy and verticality to Alaves this season and his side are eleventh in LaLiga 2025-2026 with four points from three outings.
Their results have been mixed, however, with a 2-1 home win over Levante, a 1-0 loss away at Real Betis and a 1-1 draw at home with Atletico Madrid coming in the last few weeks. Moreover, the latest Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves prediction takes into account that Antonio Martinez is their top scorer in LaLiga with one in three, but Carles Alena has been the chief creator with one assist in three LaLiga games so far and is the man who has been pulling the strings in midfield.
Carlos Vicente is in good form with two goals in the last four, but Alaves have not scored away from home in LaLiga 2025-2026, so Athletic may have the edge in the goal area. Back-to-back away matches have been tough to take and this is another tough trip with Alaves failing to win in their last three to Athletic.
Home advantage to decide Basques clash
Athletic Bilbao will win this game with a bit of room to spare because their defensive organisation and home record is better than Alaves’s away from home. However, the visitors will not go down without a fight and the contrast of Alaves’s man-to-man pressing against Athletic’s compact mid-block will be intriguing to watch.
The game will be decided by transitions and individual battles more than patterns of play and it is a game where the under 2.5 goals bet has some appeal, given Alaves’s inability to score on the road and the fact that Athletic have conceded just two goals in two home LaLiga fixtures this term.
But the best play is to stick with the home team, who know how to close out games and have the tactical continuity that Alaves don’t. The Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves betting tips suggest Athletic are 1.57 favourites, which is fair odds given Alaves are 6.20 to pull off the upset. For punters assessing the Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves prediction, these numbers reflect the edge for the home side.
