- This game may be won or lost on who makes the least errors and who makes the best one.
- Vélez have finished 3rd in Group A with 28 points.
- Gimnasia have finished 6th in Group B with 26 points after a late charge into the playoff places.
Close contest expected in Buenos Aires
Vélez Sarsfield are a slightly favored 1.84 to win this one-legged playoff contest against Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata, who are a long 4.47 to take the victory, with the tie at 3.32.
This is a battle between two solid but not spectacular teams with little to choose between them. Both clubs have won home and away, with our Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata prediction just edging Vélez in the medium-term head-to-head.
Vélez’s boss, Guillermo Barros Schelotto, brings top-tier experience to this clash, where family connections will be a subplot as he faces relatives playing for Gimnasia, and Marcelo ‘Chelo’ Torres leads the visitors’ attack.
He has clearly installed a pragmatic, organized style to the hosts that has produced playoff qualification at the end of the Apertura. Ariel Pereyra’s men have responded well to his arrival as interim coach, winning five straight matches in all competitions, including a Copa Argentina win.
They have been solid defensively and much more dangerous going forward in the last month.
Ignacio ‘Nacho’ Fernández has been the spark that has given Gimnasia more creativity and some better finishing, having contributed goals and assists in his side’s run of five straight wins in all competitions.
Ariel Pereyra has clearly changed the whole mindset of the team with his emphasis on staying compact, making it hard to play through them and hitting on the counter.
Florián Monzón is Vélez’s main outlet with six goals in the Apertura, making him a constant threat at set-pieces and in the box.
He will be licking his lips at the prospect of Gimnasia lining up a few corners in the second half of the game and the hosts’ superior pace on the wings should give them some joy in the closing stages.
Manuel Lanzini is the playmaker and orchestrator in the center of the field, while Matías Pellegrini offers width and pace on both flanks. This Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata preview highlights how the visitors have become more adventurous in the attacking third of late, although still prefer to play a direct style when possible.
Álvaro Montero has been a tower in goal for Vélez and kept clean sheets in several recent outings, although Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata prediction considers that Gimnasia’s recent matches have seen both sides score.
Barros Schelotto’s 4-2-3-1 team has made them very hard to break down with quick transitions to a high-tempo game, but they are still playing a bit too cautiously for my taste.
A 1-0 or 2-1 home win is the most likely outcome based on the current form of both clubs, but a 1-1 tie and extra time could also come into play if Gimnasia keep their momentum rolling through the first half.
Under 2.5 goals is a strong 1.57 and the Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata betting tips suggest a similar low-scoring chess match is anticipated here.
The windy, cool conditions in Buenos Aires on Monday should play into the hands of Gimnasia’s long-ball game and set-piece routines, but Vélez’s vertical approach will always make them a threat on the break.
With Vélez’s home advantage and defensive solidity, the Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata prediction is that they should just nick it, but we’re going for a low-scoring game, probably settled by a single goal or extra time.
