- Leeds United are 15th in the Premier League 2025-2026 standings with 40 points from 34 games.
- Burnley are 19th with 20 points from 34 matches.
Leeds United in urgent need of points
Leeds United will come into this game as odds-on favorites, coming in at 1.47.
This is a big game for Leeds United, who sit 15th in the table with 40 points from 34 Premier League 2025/2026 games, while Burnley are 19th and have just 20 points from the same number of games. Our Leeds United vs Burnley prediction suggests Leeds have the upper hand, as they have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five in all competitions, beating Wolverhampton 3-0 in the league at Elland Road and drawing 2-2 away to Bournemouth last time out.
Burnley have lost four of their last five league games, picking up one point, and they were beaten 2-0 at home by Brighton, 4-1 at Nottingham Forest and 1-0 at home to Manchester City in their last three matches.
Both sides to bag a goal
These two sides have met on three occasions in the Premier League 2025/2026 and Burnley have won twice and drawn once, the most recent meeting ending in a 2-0 home victory for the Clarets six months ago. In our Leeds United vs Burnley preview, it’s clear Burnley’s lack of tempo and structured, set-piece focus can frustrate Leeds United but they don’t look capable of making it difficult enough.
Daniel Farke has brought his characteristic possession-based style to Leeds United, with an emphasis on a high-tempo game, vertical transitions and overloading the wide areas. His flexibility has allowed Leeds to play an intense, pressing game while also possessing the tactical know-how to stay compact and solid when required.
Scott Parker has brought a similar approach to Burnley, focusing on structure, compactness and selective pressing. Parker has done little to reverse his side’s fortunes but he has instilled some discipline and pragmatism in the squad, with Burnley playing out a series of low-scoring games.
Burnley lack the quality to trouble Leeds
However, Parker’s side lack the required quality in the final third to trouble Leeds, who average 1.47 goals per home game this campaign, finding the net 25 times at Elland Road in the league. When considering the Leeds United vs Burnley prediction again, Burnley have been so poor defensively away from home, letting in an average of 2.47 per game, and a goal-fest is expected on Friday.
I’m backing Leeds United to win and over 2.5 goals, with both teams to score - yes coming in at 1.75 and 1.85 respectively. Leeds have won seven, drawn five and lost five of their 17 home games in the Premier League 2025/2026. Burnley have lost 12, drawn three and won just two of 17 on the road.
Leeds are unbeaten in their last two home games, with one win and one draw, and look much more likely to dominate possession and create more chances than Burnley, who will attempt to frustrate and hit the visitors on the counterattack.
Noah Okafor has scored three of Leeds United’s last six goals in their past five matches and is the best choice for an anytime scorer, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin, with 11 goals in 31 appearances, leads the line well for Leeds United. Additionally, this Leeds United vs Burnley betting tips section highlights Zian Flemming, who has nine Premier League 2025-2026 goals to his name this season, as Burnley’s main threat, having also scored both of their goals in the last two matches, so he is the choice for an away goal scorer.
