- St. Pauli have lost their last three Bundesliga matches, conceding five goals in the process
- VfL Wolfsburg are unbeaten in their last two Bundesliga away games, including a 1-1 draw at Freiburg
- Wolfsburg are two places above St. Pauli in the Bundesliga standings, and they are level on points in 16th and 18th respectively
Two of the three worst away defences in Bundesliga meet in relegation six-pointer
VfL Wolfsburg’s defence may be better than St. Pauli’s on paper, but the statistics suggest this is a matchup of two leaky defences when the visitors come to the Millerntor-Stadion on Saturday. Our FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg prediction is shaped by the fact that both teams have struggled to keep opponents at bay throughout the season.
St. Pauli have scored 16 times in 16 Bundesliga home games, while Wolfsburg’s defense has shipped 36 goals in 16 Bundesliga away days - an average of 2.25 per game. The statistics also show that St Pauli have netted only 16 times in 16 home games.
The visitors are certainly in the better position of this relegation battle, but the momentum of the club in the relegation places is with the hosts right now as Alexander Blessin has got the Kiezkicker organised in a very pragmatic style.
Sinani’s speed should test Wolfsburg’s full-backs
St. Pauli, who have failed to win any of their last three home matches against Wolfsburg, will set up a compact low block and invite pressure from the opposing team in what promises to be a possession versus counter-attack clash. The FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg preview highlights the tactical battle, with Blessin likely to use a 5-4-1 or 3-4-1-2 structure depending on the opponent, looking to limit Wolfsburg’s high tempo game.
Wolfsburg, who play with a 4-3-3 structure and often set their full-backs high, have a very different set-up to St. Pauli. The Wolves, who are more expansive and proactive, can get in behind the home side’s defensive blocks by playing wide and moving the ball quickly.
Dieter Hecking, who recently took over as Wolfsburg coach, has already overseen a pair of resilient draws and he needs to use that foundation to build some momentum. For those interested in this FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg prediction, monitoring tactical changes under Hecking could be crucial in finding an edge.
Goals should be on the cards in closely-fought game
Hecking’s men will test the hosts’ defensive solidity and set up a contest that could end in a high-scoring draw. St Pauli have taken only one point from their last five Bundesliga matches, suffering defeats to Heidenheim, Mainz and RB Leipzig. Meanwhile, the Wolfs have W1, D2 and L2 in their last five league games.
It is difficult to split the two sides for the win, but the draw odds of 3.78 looks very tempting given what is at stake and that St Pauli have not won any of their last three home matches against the club from Lower Saxony. A both teams to score bet at 1.53 and over 2.5 goals at 1.72 is preferred to the win-draw-win markets for this fixture, and the FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg betting tips point to a closely contested encounter with goals on both sides.
Danel Sinani is the Bundesliga’s leading goalscorer for St Pauli with five, while the Kiwis’ top marksman is Abdoulie Ceesay, who has netted two of their last three goals. Wolfsburg have a leading scorer in Mohamed Amoura with eight Bundesliga goals and Dzenan Pejcinovic has scored two of their goals in their last five.
