- Middlesbrough have won two of the last three Championship head-to-head meetings, which finished with a 2-1 Boro win four weeks ago.
- Boro have won three of their last five Championship matches (D1, L1) while Derby have won one of their last five (D3, L1).
Compact Rams can make it tough for Boro
Middlesbrough look favourites to take the points when they face Derby County at Pride Park on Thursday, but the Rams’ defensive set-up and dangerous dead-ball play can make it a very tough night for Kim Hellberg’s promotion-chasing team.
Boro have been on a roll since Hellberg's November appointment and the Teessiders are now second in the Championship standings with 43 points from 23 games. Derby are 11th with 32 points from the same number of games and have drawn back-to-back games against Portsmouth and Birmingham City.
But it is never a smart move to underestimate Derby because John Eustace’s men are a compact team that can come together to shut out opponents and then hurt them with set pieces and play on the counter-attack. The Derby County vs Middlesbrough prediction suggests Boro are a much better team than those two opponents and have enough in the locker to win Thursday’s game, but the hosts’ style can still make it difficult for them.
Boro’s wide play can test Derby
Boro’s best results have come when the wing backs, who give them plenty of width and verticality in their 3-4-2-1 or 3-5-2 system, have been able to create overloads down the flanks. Hellberg’s men are a high-pressing side, although they can get caught out by long balls over the top or if opponents sit back and absorb their pressure.
Derby usually line up in a 4-2-3-1 that is compact enough to negate opposition attacks and strong enough in the wide areas to create transitions when they win the ball back. This Derby County vs Middlesbrough preview will highlight how Eustace’s side are a team to watch out for when they have the ball in the attacking third or on set pieces, with Carlton Morris a consistent goal threat up front with 10 goals in 16 Championship appearances.
Boro are the slight favourites at 2.34 to win this while Derby are 3.05, which seems generous to the home side. The Teessiders have been very good away from home of late, winning two of their last three.
Boro can win but Derby can hold firm
Backing the visitors to continue their fine form with another win is fine, but given Derby haven’t lost in their last encounter at Pride Park, a wager on the ‘Under 2.5 goals’ market at 1.7 looks a good option here. For those interested, our Derby County vs Middlesbrough betting tips also point to value in low-scoring outcomes.
Boro have conceded only 14 goals on the road this season and Hellberg’s side aren’t prolific enough to overcome Derby’s defence without a bit of luck. But with Morgan Whittaker in form, having scored three goals in Boro’s last five, they should have enough to edge this one according to the latest Derby County vs Middlesbrough prediction.
