- Universitario have won 4 of the last 5 head-to-heads and haven't drawn in that run.
- In the last meeting, 5 months ago in the Liga 1 - Apertura, Universitario won 2-0 at home.
Universitario can edge it in Tarma
Tarma's home form should keep them in the mix on Saturday, but the visitors look likely to edge a cagey game. Universitario are priced up as the favorites for this fixture, which is perhaps the most telling thing about the visitors' chances, and the Asociacion Deportiva Tarma vs Universitario de Deportes prediction points to a tight contest. ADT are 3.23 for the win, Universitario are 2.22 and the draw is 3.22, which looks about right to me because Universitario will be the likeliest winners, but the odds are too short for the away side and there is value elsewhere in the game.
A 5-4-1 or 5-3-2 shell is Usúcar's blueprint for this team, the idea being to sit narrow and close the centre, then break fast on transitions and dead balls when possible. In Jordan Guivin, ADT have the spark in that front line, he has 3 of the teams 7 goals in the last 5 matches, but the wide areas are the battleground for this game. Universitario's wing-backs could open up the whole game or get punished on the counter if ADT catch them out.
Head-to-head suggests goals could be scarce
Universitario's form has been mixed, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss across their last 5. They have played two games against UCV Moquegua and Deportes Tolima and drew 0-0 in both before beating Sport Huancayo 2-1 in their last outing. Héctor Cúper's team is not a free-flowing outfit, they operate with discipline, structure and they won't give too much away.
In this fixture, the hosts have conceded 1.50 goals per-game against Universitario over the last 5 H2Hs at home, but the home side have conceded a mere 0.67 goals per-game in all current competitions at Estadio Unión Tarma, which suggests they have built a solid platform in Tarma.
Asociacion Deportiva Tarma's form has also been mixed, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses across their last 5 fixtures. In all competitions, it's 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats over the last 10, which is an even more mixed run of results and leaves ADT vulnerable to the drop, but the base is solid enough to get through another season. For this Asociacion Deportiva Tarma vs Universitario de Deportes preview, the numbers still point toward a cautious match.
In a cagey fixture, the away team are the bet
The Under 2.5 goals market looks appealing at 1.7, while the Both Teams to Score - No bet is also a possibility at 1.87, but the bet is on Universitario to win, and the Asociacion Deportiva Tarma vs Universitario de Deportes betting tips lean the same way. Cúper has rotated his shape, but it is designed for his team to control the ball and play their game, which is not what ADT want to do. The hosts will try to drag this into a low-tempo grind and Universitario will want to keep things controlled and apply pressure in numbers. Our Asociacion Deportiva Tarma vs Universitario de Deportes prediction is for a narrow away win.
