- Marko Nikolic’s disciplined AEK Athens are the Super League Championship Group 2026 leaders with 63 points from 27 games.
- Razvan Lucescu’s PAOK Thessaloniki are in 2nd place with 58 points from 27 Super League matches.
- AEK Athens have failed to win any of the last three head-to-head meetings with PAOK Thessaloniki (D1, L2).
AEK Athens are a structure-first, possession-based team
Marko Nikolic has made AEK Athens an extremely tough team to beat in the Super League Championship Group 2026 by developing a pragmatic, possession-based system based on compact mid-blocks, selective pressing and a compact structure.
They do not attack with great numbers on the counter, but their control of the midfield and regular, measured vertical play does get them enough chances to average 1.92 goals per home match in the league.
With Aboubakary Koita, the most dangerous attacking player AEK Athens have produced so far in the Championship Group, who scored in his only league appearance, the hosts could get a goal or two on Sunday, according to our AEK Athens vs FC PAOK Thessaloniki prediction.
PAOK will test AEK’s backline
PAOK are an altogether more physical side and rely on quick transitions out wide, physicality and set-piece routines to create their chances.
When Lucescu is on song, the team do not press in numbers, but rather sit back in a solid structure and ramp up the pressure in the middle of the field to release their wide players on the break.
Alexander Jeremejeff is the goal scorer that PAOK rely on, netting two of their four goals in the last five, but this is a team that has struggled on their travels in recent times, losing both of their last two away games. In this context, the AEK Athens vs FC PAOK Thessaloniki preview suggests PAOK will have to find new answers on the road.
A big game with big stakes
AEK Athens have won 11, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their 13 home matches this season, while PAOK have won six, drawn four and lost three of their 13 away matches in the Super League Championship Group 2026.
PAOK have the better recent head-to-head record (W2, D1, L0), but the most recent meeting was a 1-0 home win in the Super League 2024/2025.
The average number of goals per game in this fixture when AEK Athens host is 1.5, and we predict that the bet on over 2.5 goals is the most likely outcome, making this a key point for AEK Athens vs FC PAOK Thessaloniki betting tips.
Given the fact that AEK have a much better home record and have the form to back them up, we are taking the odds on an AEK Athens win (2.28) over a PAOK draw or win option.
Our AEK Athens vs FC PAOK Thessaloniki prediction, considering all factors, is that AEK Athens are in the best position to secure a win.
We are also taking the underdog bet of ‘both teams to score - no’ (1.87), as the home side’s defensive structure and the visitors’ away form suggest only one team will be scoring on this occasion.
